I know this particular post won't be of interest to several of my usual viewers. Afterall, writing about one particular baseball team is considered a "niche" and generally reserved for a specific audience. So let me be perfectly honest... I'm writing this more for me than I am for you.
As a die-hard Braves' fan, I have all this information floating around upstairs and feel the need to share it with the rest of the world. I don't cover the team or talk to the players. But I do follow baseball very closely and probably watched 130 Braves games last year alone.
So if you're interested, here is my in-depth 2011 Atlanta Braves Preview:
A quick recap of last year:
Last year, the Braves had a record 91-71. They won the National League Wild Card, and made it to the playoffs for the first time since 2005. They played the eventual World Series champions, the San Francisco Giants, in the divisional series (first round of the playoffs.) The Best-of-Five series was tied 1-1 going into Game 3. The Braves were leading that game in the 9th inning... but costly errors allowed the Giants to come from behind and win. The Giants also went on to win Game 4, and the Braves season was over.
Now looking to improve on last year's solid season, the Braves are a popular pick among experts to make the playoffs for a second consecutive year. I'm going to run through each position and see if they have the manpower to do so.
MANAGER
The biggest change in Atlanta this season will not be seen on the filed, but rather in the dugout. Freddi Gonzalez replaces one of the all-time greats in Bobby Cox. Freddi is a Cox disciple (having been the Braves 3rd base coach from 2003-2006), but will bring some of his own flair to the team. I'll miss Bobby, but I'm excited to see the new manager in action.
CATCHER
This might be the Braves' most solid position. In Brian McCann, the Braves have the best catcher in baseball whose name is not Joe Mauer. McCann has been to the All-Star game in all five of his full big-league seasons. Last year, he was the game's MVP. He's also won four Silver Slugger awards (given each year to a league's best hitter at his position). Need I say anymore about his offense? Defensively, McCann isn't going to win any Gold Gloves, but he's worked extremely hard to become solid. Last year he threw out 30% of baserunners. (That's up from 18% his rookie year.) Atlanta also boasts one of the best backup catchers in the game, David Ross. He could be a starter for several teams. That's extremely important in the dog days of summer where catchers need at least a day off each week to stay fresh.
FIRST BASE
It's been a black hole for the past decade. Adam LaRoche had a couple good years... Mark Texeira was there for a year... But there's been very little consistency. Atlanta is hoping that Freddie Freeman will change that. Freeman got a taste of the big leagues last year, but 2011 will officially be his rookie year, and he is the guy at first base. Freeman won't have a lot of pressure on him as he'll start the season batting 7th or 8th. The front office will be very pleased with him hitting .275 with 15 home runs. One thing is definitely sure, the 21-year-old will be a major upgrade defensively over Troy Glaus from last year.
SECOND BASE
Atlanta's biggest move of the offseason was acquiring Dan Uggla in a trade with the Florida Marlins. They were desperate for a right-handed power bat and they got it. Uggla has averaged 30+ homers over his 5-year career. He's been selected to two All-Star games and won a Silver Slugger last year. He strikes out a lot and only has a .263 career average (although he did hit .287 in 2010), but his thump in the middle of the lineup makes up for it. I expect similar numbers in 2011, and he'll make the hitters around him that much better. His defense is below average, consistently having among the most errors for second basemen. But again, that's something the Braves can live with if he's jacking 30 homers a year.
THIRD BASE
For a 17th consecutive season, Chipper Jones will be manning the hot corner in Atlanta. And he has been my favorite baseball player for each of those years. Chipper is coming back from his 2nd major reconstructive knee surgery (ACL), and he'll turn 39 in April. He has a lot of critics saying he should just hang 'em up. It should be no surprise that I am not one of them. The days where Chipper hits 35 home runs a year are long gone, but he's still a valuable piece in this lineup. That was evidenced when the offense really struggled after he was injured last season. The future Hall of Famer will bounce back strong by hitting .290 with 15-20 home runs.
SHORTSTOP
The Braves don't have many stopgaps on this team, but Alex Gonzalez might be one of them... Acquired in a midseason trade last year, this will probably be Gonzalez's only full season in Atlanta, as his contract expires after 2011. Throughout his career, the 34-year-old has always been regarded as an above-average to good defensive player. He won't do much with the bat, but that's okay if he continues to display good defense. Atlanta will be more than pleased if he hits above his .248 career average, and that's alright if you're hitting in the bottom-third of the order.
LEFT FIELD
Last year he was an all-star 2nd basemen. This year Martin Prado moves to left filed to make room for Uggla. Prado was relatively unknown two years ago, but he's since solidified himself as one of the premier hit machines in the National League. He's hit .307 each of the past two years. Prado is not your prototypical leadoff hitter (he doesn't walk much or steal many bases), but he fits there because (again I say) the dude is a hit machine. He's a great athlete and his work ethic is second to none. He's already made the transition to left field seem like a cakewalk. He'll be the best defender the Braves have had in left in several years.
CENTER FIELD
Heading into Spring Training, center field (in my opinion) was the biggest question mark on this team. It was an absolute disaster last year. However, Nate McLouth has enjoyed a tremendous spring and hopes to bounce back from a miserable 2010 season in which he hit only .190. This is a guy who, in 2008, hit .276 with 76 extra-base hits. He was an All-Star with the Pirates and also won a gold glove. He's only 29, so it's not like he's past his prime. Do I think he'll have another all-star season in 2011? No. But I also think he'll be considerably better than what we saw last year. Regardless, this is probably McLouth's final year as a Brave.
RIGHT FIELD
Last year, Jason Heyward received all the preseason buzz as a 20-year-old rookie. He lived up to the hype by batting .277 with 18 home runs. Those numbers would have been even better if not for a thumb injury that plagued him for much of the season. Heyward is a superstar who has it all. Power. Plate Discipline. Speed. Good Defense. There's only one question that surrounds him... his health. At 6'5", 245 lbs., Heyward has a lot of moving parts. Last year it was his thumb. This spring it's been soreness in his back. Braves fans just want to see him healthy and hitting in the middle of the lineup. If he can play 150 games, expect a batting average near .300, with 25-30 homers. And although he may not get it this year don't be surprised if he captures a few Gold Gloves during his career.
BENCH
The Braves will carry 5 bench players. Along with David Ross, Erik Hinskie and Joe Mather are locks to make the club. These are similar players in terms of both can play the corner outfield and corner infield positions. Hinskie is an excellent left-handed pinch hitter who played a major role in the Braves' success last season. To be honest, I had never heard of Joe Mather before he joined the Braves this offseason. He's only had 193 major league at-bats (all with the St. Louis Cardinals.) But he's a right-handed power bat who the Braves really seem to like. I'm excited to see him play.
That leaves two other bench spots still to be determined. One will surely be a middle infielder, and the other could be a super-utility player. We'll know who they are in about 10 days.
STARTING ROTATION
On paper, the Braves starting rotation doesn't match the much-publicized Phillies or the reigning champion Giants. But pound-for-pound, the Braves may have the third best rotation in the National League.
In Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe, the Braves have the 5th and 7th winningest active pitchers. The two veterans have similar philosophies... keep the ball low and get a lot of ground ball outs. Hudson enjoyed a solid bounce back season after Tommy John surgery, posting a 2.83 ERA and finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting. Lowe finished with a more-pedestrian ERA of 4.00, but he eats a lot of innings and played great down the stretch. I figure both to have similar seasons of 14-16 wins and ERA's between 3.30 and 3.80.
Tommy Hanson is probably the best pitcher on this team. This will only be his second full season in the majors, and I expect him to be one of the top 10 or 15 pitchers in all of baseball. A sub-3.00 ERA, with 190 strikeouts and 17 wins is not out of the question. I think he's still a year or two from being a Cy Young contender, but he's very close.
Jair Jurrjens is another solid young pitcher, entering his fourth big-league season. In 2009, he pitched 215 innings and had a 2.60 ERA, third best in the league. However, last year he was plagued by injuries and saw his ERA balloon to 4.64. Fortunately, Jurrjens's injuries were not arm-related, and he's very capable of putting together a strong season. However, I don't think he'll recapture the magic he had in 2009.
Two rookies, Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor, are battling to become the 5th starter. The lefty Minor has a higher ceiling, but Beachy may actually be a better fit right away due to his command of the strike zone. A decision probably won't be made until the last week of camp.
BULLPEN
Here's two names everyone should should know: Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel.
Venters, a southpaw, is coming off an incredible rookie year, where he appeared in 79 games, struck out 93 batters, and posted a 1.95 ERA. By the end of the season, he became the Braves' primary setup man. Expect him to flourish in that role once again this season, while getting a few more chances to close.
Kimbrel appeared in 21 games last season, but this will be his official rookie season. What can I say about this kid? Wow! During his short stint with the Braves, he went 4-0, allowed only one earned run in 20.2 innings, and struck out 40 batters! Lights out! Unfortunately, he also walked 16 batters, an alarming number. If he can improve his control, he will be a dynamic closer. Although Freddi Gonzalez says Kimbrel and Venters will take turns closing, I believe it'll Kimbrel's job by June. I can see him saving 25-30 games in 2011.
Other returning players from last year's squad are the sidearmer Peter Moylan (career ERA: 2.58) and lefty Eric O'Flaherty (career ERA: 4.07). In the offseason, Atlanta went out and grabbed veterans Scott Linebrink (career ERA: 3.50) and lefty specialist George Sherril (career ERA: 3.76). These four pitchers will play in a wide variety of middle relief situations. On paper, it looks like a very solid group.
A seventh reliever will also make the squad. There are about 3 players currently competing for that spot.
MY BOLD PREDICTION FOR 2011
Several experts say the Braves have looked like the best team in the entire National League this spring. Some are taking it a step further and predicting them to win the National League East. Still, a vast majority are sticking with the Phillies, who have won the division four consecutive years. I tend to agree. But I do think the Braves will be better than last year, and I have them winning 93 games (a 2-win improvement). I also think they'll make the playoffs for a second consecutive year as the NL Wild Card.
However, I'm not ready to make any predictions beyond the regular season. I'm just hoping that I'll have the opportunity to make a prediction for a potential playoff run when the time comes.
Happy Baseball Season Everyone!
As a die-hard Braves' fan, I have all this information floating around upstairs and feel the need to share it with the rest of the world. I don't cover the team or talk to the players. But I do follow baseball very closely and probably watched 130 Braves games last year alone.
So if you're interested, here is my in-depth 2011 Atlanta Braves Preview:
A quick recap of last year:
Last year, the Braves had a record 91-71. They won the National League Wild Card, and made it to the playoffs for the first time since 2005. They played the eventual World Series champions, the San Francisco Giants, in the divisional series (first round of the playoffs.) The Best-of-Five series was tied 1-1 going into Game 3. The Braves were leading that game in the 9th inning... but costly errors allowed the Giants to come from behind and win. The Giants also went on to win Game 4, and the Braves season was over.
Now looking to improve on last year's solid season, the Braves are a popular pick among experts to make the playoffs for a second consecutive year. I'm going to run through each position and see if they have the manpower to do so.
MANAGER
The biggest change in Atlanta this season will not be seen on the filed, but rather in the dugout. Freddi Gonzalez replaces one of the all-time greats in Bobby Cox. Freddi is a Cox disciple (having been the Braves 3rd base coach from 2003-2006), but will bring some of his own flair to the team. I'll miss Bobby, but I'm excited to see the new manager in action.
 |
| Brian McCann |
This might be the Braves' most solid position. In Brian McCann, the Braves have the best catcher in baseball whose name is not Joe Mauer. McCann has been to the All-Star game in all five of his full big-league seasons. Last year, he was the game's MVP. He's also won four Silver Slugger awards (given each year to a league's best hitter at his position). Need I say anymore about his offense? Defensively, McCann isn't going to win any Gold Gloves, but he's worked extremely hard to become solid. Last year he threw out 30% of baserunners. (That's up from 18% his rookie year.) Atlanta also boasts one of the best backup catchers in the game, David Ross. He could be a starter for several teams. That's extremely important in the dog days of summer where catchers need at least a day off each week to stay fresh.
FIRST BASE
It's been a black hole for the past decade. Adam LaRoche had a couple good years... Mark Texeira was there for a year... But there's been very little consistency. Atlanta is hoping that Freddie Freeman will change that. Freeman got a taste of the big leagues last year, but 2011 will officially be his rookie year, and he is the guy at first base. Freeman won't have a lot of pressure on him as he'll start the season batting 7th or 8th. The front office will be very pleased with him hitting .275 with 15 home runs. One thing is definitely sure, the 21-year-old will be a major upgrade defensively over Troy Glaus from last year.
SECOND BASE
Atlanta's biggest move of the offseason was acquiring Dan Uggla in a trade with the Florida Marlins. They were desperate for a right-handed power bat and they got it. Uggla has averaged 30+ homers over his 5-year career. He's been selected to two All-Star games and won a Silver Slugger last year. He strikes out a lot and only has a .263 career average (although he did hit .287 in 2010), but his thump in the middle of the lineup makes up for it. I expect similar numbers in 2011, and he'll make the hitters around him that much better. His defense is below average, consistently having among the most errors for second basemen. But again, that's something the Braves can live with if he's jacking 30 homers a year.
 |
| Chipper Jones |
For a 17th consecutive season, Chipper Jones will be manning the hot corner in Atlanta. And he has been my favorite baseball player for each of those years. Chipper is coming back from his 2nd major reconstructive knee surgery (ACL), and he'll turn 39 in April. He has a lot of critics saying he should just hang 'em up. It should be no surprise that I am not one of them. The days where Chipper hits 35 home runs a year are long gone, but he's still a valuable piece in this lineup. That was evidenced when the offense really struggled after he was injured last season. The future Hall of Famer will bounce back strong by hitting .290 with 15-20 home runs.
SHORTSTOP
The Braves don't have many stopgaps on this team, but Alex Gonzalez might be one of them... Acquired in a midseason trade last year, this will probably be Gonzalez's only full season in Atlanta, as his contract expires after 2011. Throughout his career, the 34-year-old has always been regarded as an above-average to good defensive player. He won't do much with the bat, but that's okay if he continues to display good defense. Atlanta will be more than pleased if he hits above his .248 career average, and that's alright if you're hitting in the bottom-third of the order.
 |
| Martin Prado |
Last year he was an all-star 2nd basemen. This year Martin Prado moves to left filed to make room for Uggla. Prado was relatively unknown two years ago, but he's since solidified himself as one of the premier hit machines in the National League. He's hit .307 each of the past two years. Prado is not your prototypical leadoff hitter (he doesn't walk much or steal many bases), but he fits there because (again I say) the dude is a hit machine. He's a great athlete and his work ethic is second to none. He's already made the transition to left field seem like a cakewalk. He'll be the best defender the Braves have had in left in several years.
CENTER FIELD
Heading into Spring Training, center field (in my opinion) was the biggest question mark on this team. It was an absolute disaster last year. However, Nate McLouth has enjoyed a tremendous spring and hopes to bounce back from a miserable 2010 season in which he hit only .190. This is a guy who, in 2008, hit .276 with 76 extra-base hits. He was an All-Star with the Pirates and also won a gold glove. He's only 29, so it's not like he's past his prime. Do I think he'll have another all-star season in 2011? No. But I also think he'll be considerably better than what we saw last year. Regardless, this is probably McLouth's final year as a Brave.
 |
| Jason Heyward |
Last year, Jason Heyward received all the preseason buzz as a 20-year-old rookie. He lived up to the hype by batting .277 with 18 home runs. Those numbers would have been even better if not for a thumb injury that plagued him for much of the season. Heyward is a superstar who has it all. Power. Plate Discipline. Speed. Good Defense. There's only one question that surrounds him... his health. At 6'5", 245 lbs., Heyward has a lot of moving parts. Last year it was his thumb. This spring it's been soreness in his back. Braves fans just want to see him healthy and hitting in the middle of the lineup. If he can play 150 games, expect a batting average near .300, with 25-30 homers. And although he may not get it this year don't be surprised if he captures a few Gold Gloves during his career.
BENCH
The Braves will carry 5 bench players. Along with David Ross, Erik Hinskie and Joe Mather are locks to make the club. These are similar players in terms of both can play the corner outfield and corner infield positions. Hinskie is an excellent left-handed pinch hitter who played a major role in the Braves' success last season. To be honest, I had never heard of Joe Mather before he joined the Braves this offseason. He's only had 193 major league at-bats (all with the St. Louis Cardinals.) But he's a right-handed power bat who the Braves really seem to like. I'm excited to see him play.
That leaves two other bench spots still to be determined. One will surely be a middle infielder, and the other could be a super-utility player. We'll know who they are in about 10 days.
STARTING ROTATION
On paper, the Braves starting rotation doesn't match the much-publicized Phillies or the reigning champion Giants. But pound-for-pound, the Braves may have the third best rotation in the National League.
In Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe, the Braves have the 5th and 7th winningest active pitchers. The two veterans have similar philosophies... keep the ball low and get a lot of ground ball outs. Hudson enjoyed a solid bounce back season after Tommy John surgery, posting a 2.83 ERA and finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting. Lowe finished with a more-pedestrian ERA of 4.00, but he eats a lot of innings and played great down the stretch. I figure both to have similar seasons of 14-16 wins and ERA's between 3.30 and 3.80.
 |
| Tommy Hanson |
Jair Jurrjens is another solid young pitcher, entering his fourth big-league season. In 2009, he pitched 215 innings and had a 2.60 ERA, third best in the league. However, last year he was plagued by injuries and saw his ERA balloon to 4.64. Fortunately, Jurrjens's injuries were not arm-related, and he's very capable of putting together a strong season. However, I don't think he'll recapture the magic he had in 2009.
Two rookies, Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor, are battling to become the 5th starter. The lefty Minor has a higher ceiling, but Beachy may actually be a better fit right away due to his command of the strike zone. A decision probably won't be made until the last week of camp.
BULLPEN
Here's two names everyone should should know: Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel.
Venters, a southpaw, is coming off an incredible rookie year, where he appeared in 79 games, struck out 93 batters, and posted a 1.95 ERA. By the end of the season, he became the Braves' primary setup man. Expect him to flourish in that role once again this season, while getting a few more chances to close.
 |
| Craig Kimbrel |
Other returning players from last year's squad are the sidearmer Peter Moylan (career ERA: 2.58) and lefty Eric O'Flaherty (career ERA: 4.07). In the offseason, Atlanta went out and grabbed veterans Scott Linebrink (career ERA: 3.50) and lefty specialist George Sherril (career ERA: 3.76). These four pitchers will play in a wide variety of middle relief situations. On paper, it looks like a very solid group.
A seventh reliever will also make the squad. There are about 3 players currently competing for that spot.
MY BOLD PREDICTION FOR 2011
Several experts say the Braves have looked like the best team in the entire National League this spring. Some are taking it a step further and predicting them to win the National League East. Still, a vast majority are sticking with the Phillies, who have won the division four consecutive years. I tend to agree. But I do think the Braves will be better than last year, and I have them winning 93 games (a 2-win improvement). I also think they'll make the playoffs for a second consecutive year as the NL Wild Card.
However, I'm not ready to make any predictions beyond the regular season. I'm just hoping that I'll have the opportunity to make a prediction for a potential playoff run when the time comes.
Happy Baseball Season Everyone!
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